By the time we get to the Wednesday of the Cheltenham Festival racing fans already have several big storylines to digest and punters are either celebrating their luck or licking their wounds.
However your first day has gone, there are plenty of opportunities to win from your Cheltenham bets on day two. To help your betting, we’ve been through Wednesday’s races and picked out the key trends below to help you pick some winning horses.
Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle
The second day of the Cheltenham Festival begins like the first, with a novices’ hurdle. Many horses will hold entries to both the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle and the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Some have gone on to win the Ballymore which is the longer of the races by five furlongs and for that reason previous form over the full 21 furlongs is not a necessity.
Still, punters want to back horses who have shown a certain amount of stamina and definitely who are of high calibre. Eight of the last 12 winners had previous winning form amongst Graded company and all but one of the last 12 had at least two wins over hurdles.
Hurdling experience is important but the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle is for up and coming horses of high class. Therefore, it is rare to find a winner aged over six whilst several exceptional five-year-olds have won this important Grade 1.
Festival Novices Chase
The Festival Novices Chase has played a very important role in the career of some truly top class staying chasers over the years. As you’d expect from a race that has produced Gold Cup winners, most recent victors had already shown high class jumping ability and a certain amount of stamina.
Horses who have won or at the very least competed over three miles have a statistical edge. It is also important for punters to side with horses who have had at least three starts and one win over fences whilst two wins over hurdles is a plus.
Seven-year-olds have a very good record in the Festival Novices Chase whilst wins for horses outside of six to eight-year-olds are very rare.
Big name trainers such as Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have claimed multiple wins in recent years. The calibre of trainer and horse that tends to win the Festival Novices Chase means that winning favourites are relatively rare and that punters should focus on the top three or four in the betting.
Coral Cup
The Grade 3 Coral Cup is always a very competitive race and so it’s not a race for favourites. In fact, no favourite has obliged in the last 12 renewals and only two horses from the top three in the betting have won in that time.
Instead of looking at the top of the betting market the trends suggest that punters should concentrate on those priced between 12/1 and 16/1 in the racing odds, although horses at bigger prices are not out of the question.
There is no age bracket that especially stands out (winners have ranged from five to nine years of age since 2007) with the weights carried much more informative. The weight range to focus on is between 10st 6lb and 11st 4lb.
Queen Mother Champion Chase
The day two championship race is always run at a frenetic pace and is amongst the toughest tests of jumping of the National Hunt season. As it is a specialists’ race the bookies tend to have a good handle on the Queen Mother Champion Chase and six of the last seven winners came from inside the top three of the starting betting odds.
Similarly, the calibre of recent winners means that there’s a strong trend for horses with an official rating of 165 or more claiming success. As you would expect, previous Grade 1 success is important for any horse to have a genuine chance of winning the Champion Chase as is winning form over the 2m distance and plenty of experience over fences.
British trainers have had the better of recent renewals, with Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson doing especially well. Those two also know the importance of a strong relationship between jockey and horse because of the confidence that such a relationship can give to horses in this technically and mentally demanding race.
Cross Country Chase
The Cross Country Chase is run over a distance just shy of four miles. It stands to reason that winners of this conditions race have all shown a certain adaptability to cope with tough staying trips. Nine of the last 10 winners had at least contested a race over 3m6f before although winning over that distance is seemingly not a requirement.
What is required, however, is experience. Horses without at least 10 chases and no wins over the bigger obstacles need not apply. The importance of experience means that the market is often a decent guide with four of the last five in the betting going off inside the top three in the betting.
It’s very tough to win carrying more than 11st 4lb. Only two of the last 10 winners have carried in excess of that mark whilst the minimum age of those 10 winners was eight and the oldest was 12.
Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle
As the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle is open only to four-year-olds there’s only so much previous form for punters to go on.
What is clear is that the weight penalties for this handicap are very important. Horses carrying much over 11st find it very difficult to secure the win. Punters also find it challenging to pick the winner of this as the last 10 renewals have included two winners at 25/1, three at 33/1 and one at monster betting odds of 40/1. Sanctuarie was the last winning favourite back in 2010.
Some very smart young horses from big yards have claimed the Fred Winter in recent years so entries from trainers such as Gordon Elliott, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson should be considered worthy of attention.
Champion Bumper
The only flat race at the Cheltenham Festival, the Champion Bumper is open only to horses aged between four and six so those in the field have plenty of room for improvement. What links all 10 most recent winners is that they won on their last performance before heading to Cheltenham.
Those winners have no link in terms of their starting price however. Only one of the 10 was the favourite and others won at 16/1, 25/1 and 40/1.
Most winners were not making their first attempt over the 2m½f trip of the Champion Bumper and each of the last 12 winners already had a win on the flat. It’s also important to back horses with at least one win in the current season.